On Friday 28 February 2025, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with US President Donald Trump in Washington, DC. They were expected to negotiate and sign a mineral deal and then hold a joint press conference. However, during the live conversation, Zelenskyy, Trump and US Vice President J.D. Vance argued over security guarantees for Ukraine and Europe's involvement in peace talks. As a result, Volodymyr Zelenskyy left the White House early.
Later, Donald Trump said that the Ukrainian president "can come back when he is ready for peace". For his part, in an interview with Fox News, Zelenskyy thanked the United States for supporting Ukraine and expressed his belief that relations between the two countries could be salvaged. "This is more than a relationship between two presidents. This is a historic, strong relationship between our people," Zelenskyy said.
On 4 March, Bloomberg reported that the US president had ordered the suspension of all military aid to Ukraine 'until Trump decides that Ukraine's leaders are demonstrating a genuine commitment to peace'. According to ISW analysts, cutting aid to Ukraine could reduce US influence in the world and strengthen the position of Russia's allies — Iran, North Korea and China.
Will Ukraine be able to survive without US aid?
Earlier, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that during Russia's full-scale invasion, Ukraine received $200 billion in foreign military aid: $67 billion from the United States and the rest from the European Union. Direct budgetary aid from the United States amounted to $31.5 billion.
In the first half of 2024, the United States already stopped supplying weapons to Ukraine because the US Congress did not approve a new aid package. It was blocked in early October 2023 and did not come into force until April 2024. By that time, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence was looking for other sources of supply and had spent $8 billion financing domestic arms manufacturers.
In 2025, Ukraine's external financing needs will amount to at least $38.4 billion, according to the state budget for 2025. According to Finance Minister Sergii Marchenko, these funds will come from the EU, the IMF and the G7 countries. In particular, Ukraine will receive about $50 billion from the G7 at the expense of frozen Russian assets, with the US share amounting to $20 billion. The United States has already transferred these funds to the World Bank in December 2024. Other external sources of financing for Ukraine in 2025 include the EU's Ukraine Facility plan, which will provide €12.5 billion, a $2.7 billion tranche from the IMF, and assistance from other countries (the UK, Canada, Japan, etc.).
At the same time, it should be borne in mind that this is primarily non-military spending. Instead, the United States is one of the largest suppliers of arms and ammunition to Ukraine. Today, Ukraine produces or finances 55% of its weapons itself, while Europe provides about 25% and the United States 20%. But US weapons such as air defence systems, ballistic missiles and long-range artillery cannot be replaced quickly, writes the WSJ. As a result, it will be more difficult for Ukraine to conduct long-range strikes and defend its rear positions, the newspaper notes.
According to Olena Tregub, executive director of NAKO, Ukraine should focus on building new partnerships for joint arms production to compensate for the suspension of supplies from the United States. "The speed of arms production in Ukraine and the regulation and capital saturation of this market in Ukraine is the first step. It is easier for other countries to give us money than weapons. For immediate purchases, the United States, South Korea, Singapore, etc. should be considered. We should also plan for long-term purchases, because weapons will be needed in the future, no matter how long the war lasts," she said.
